Can United States still qualify for the World Cup knockout stage?

Use the scenario simulator above to toggle remaining Group D fixtures and see USA's qualification chances.

What does United States need to qualify?

Toggle all remaining group fixtures above to see the exact results USA need to finish in the top 2 of their group.

USA's Round of 16 opponent depends on where they finish in their group. First place faces a group runner-up from the opposite side of the draw.

What happens if USA win, lose or draw?

USA can still qualify

Qualifying in 45% of remaining scenarios

4th in Group D · 3 matches remaining

USA

Paraguay

Australia

USA

Turkey

USA

Australia

Turkey

Paraguay

Australia

USA qualify in 45% of scenarios — toggle to explore

• Qualifies in 330 of 729 scenarios (45%)
• Example qualifying scenario: USA beat Paraguay, Australia beat Turkey, Turkey beat Paraguay, Australia beat USA, USA beat Turkey, Paraguay beat Australia

Scenario Battle

What should USA hope for?

USA win

74%

1st place · 3 pts

USA draw

43%

2nd place · 1 pts

USA win gives USA a better chance (+31pp)

Loading scenarios…

Can United States still qualify for the World Cup knockout stage?: Use the scenario simulator above to toggle remaining Group D fixtures and see USA's qualification chances.
What does United States need to qualify?: Toggle all remaining group fixtures above to see the exact results USA need to finish in the top 2 of their group.
Who could United States face in the Round of 16?: USA's Round of 16 opponent depends on where they finish in their group. First place faces a group runner-up from the opposite side of the draw.