Can United States Still Qualify?
World Cup 2026 · Group D
USA can still qualify
Qualifying in 45% of remaining scenarios
Currently 4th in Group D · 0 points · 6 matches remaining
What USA need from USA vs Paraguay
USA win
74% chance
Qualifies in 179 of 243 scenarios (74%)
Draw
43% chance
Qualifies in 104 of 243 scenarios (43%)
USA lose
19% chance
Qualifies in 47 of 243 scenarios (19%)
Current Group D Table
| # | Team | P | GD | Pts | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 |  Australia | 0 | 0 | 0 | ✓ Q |
2 |  Paraguay | 0 | 0 | 0 | ✓ Q |
3 |  Turkey | 0 | 0 | 0 | ✗ E |
4 | USA | 0 | 0 | 0 | ✗ E |
Qualification Analysis
- • Qualifies in 330 of 729 scenarios (45%)
- • Example qualifying scenario: USA beat Paraguay, Australia beat Turkey, Turkey beat Paraguay, Australia beat USA, USA beat Turkey, Paraguay beat Australia
Scenario Battle: Win vs Draw
Scenario Battle
What should USA hope for?
USA win
74%
1st place · 3 pts
USA draw
43%
2nd place · 1 pts
USA win gives USA a better chance (+31pp)
Other matches that affect USA
Frequently Asked Questions
- Can United States still qualify for the World Cup knockout stage?
- USA qualify in 45% of remaining scenarios. Toggle results on the scenario page to see exactly what they need.
- What does United States need to qualify?
- USA have 6 remaining group matches. Use the scenario toggles to see the exact combinations of results needed.
- What group is United States in?
- United States are in Group D of the 2026 FIFA World Cup.